Land of Romney
The state of Illinois cast their primary votes on Tuesday and Mitt Romney added another group of delegates to his total. But the candidates will keep campaigning across the country to convince voters that they should be the Republican nominee.
McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc./Jill Braaten, photographer

Land of Romney

One of Illinois’ nicknames is “Land of Lincoln,” which refers to the fact that Abraham Lincoln and his family lived in Springfield, Illinois, when he was a young politician. Lincoln ran a law practice in Springfield and also served as an Illinois senator. When he ran for president as one of the earliest Republican party candidates, he called Illinois his home.

Last night, Mitt Romney might have been tempted to call Illinois his “Home Away From Home.” Republicans voting in the state primary made him their chosen candidate with close to half of the cast votes going to him. Rick Santorum earned a distant second place finish with 35 percent of the vote. Most importantly, Romney’s win collected him another 41 delegates to add to his growing total. Santorum picked up another 10 delegates, but he continues to fail in gaining ground on Romney’s delegate lead.

An Urban and Rural Split

Romney did well in urban areas. He won Cook County, where Chicago is located;  Sangamon County, where Springfield is located; and Kane County, where Aurora is located. Santorum picked up more overall counties in Illinois, but those were mostly rural counties. The county areas in and around the urban centers of Illinois went for Romney by comfortable margins. This pattern has been seen in other primary results between Romney and Santorum, such as in Michigan, or even in the very tight race in Mississippi last week.

The Latest Delegate Count

Adding in the delegates from Illinois, Romney’s unofficial delegate total is now over 560. That puts him at just under half of the 1,144 delegates needed to secure the party nomination. Santorum’s 249 delegate total is less than half of Romney’s count, according to most news organizations’ estimates.

Next, the Republicans head south, down the Mississippi River to Louisiana for another primary this coming Saturday. Expect the Santorum and Gingrich campaigns to point out that Romney has not yet performed convincingly in a Southern state primary. But Romney may have little cause for concern, as he is comfortably in the lead—a lead that might not be broken at this point.

Dig Deeper

How has Illinois served as a predictor of candidate success in recent years? Investigate past primary and general election cycles in 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, and 1992. Gather data to indicate how Illinois voters cast their picks for Republican and Democratic candidates in primaries and then for the presidential nominations in the general election. Compare those winners to the eventual winner of the presidency in each of those years. Has Illinois been a consistent selector of the winner?

Lia Eastep