A New Threat to “Obamacare”

By now, you’ve probably heard a lot about the Affordable Care Act–also known as the ACA, or “Obamacare.” It’s one of the most hotly-contested issues the country faces today, as health care was one of the most talked-about concerns of the recent midterm elections. Earlier this month, however, the ACA faced a new hurdle when a federal judge in Texas ruled the law unconstitutional. This post examines what this ruling could mean for the future of health care in the United States.

So What Happened?

To backtrack a bit: under the Obama administration, every American was required to purchase health insurance. Those who didn’t were subject to a tax penalty. This was called the “individual mandate” portion of the ACA. However, in 2017, under the Trump administration, Congress repealed the individual mandate portion of the ACA by reducing the penalty to $0.

Once that portion of the ACA was removed, Republican leaders who once felt they needed to support the ACA because it was essentially a tax (and therefore protected under Congress’s Power to Tax) now found it to be invalid.

Fast forward to now. Earlier this month, eighteen Republican state attorneys general and two Republican governors brought the case before a federal judge in Texas. Judge Reed O’Connor ruled on December 15 that the ACA is unconstitutional.

What’s Next?

Though O’Connor’s ruling is definitely a hurdle for the ACA, it’s by no means the end of the legal road. The state of California already has plans in place to appeal the ruling, with other states pledging to do the same. If this happens, it’s possible that the case will make it all the way to the Supreme Court.

The ACA has already been challenged twice in front of the Supreme Court. Both times the Supreme Court justices decided to leave the law intact. However, the makeup of the Court has changed since Trump’s appointment of two new justices, making it difficult to predict the outcome of a third challenge.

So what does this mean for people who depend on the ACA for their coverage? At the moment, not much. Health care experts urge that, for now, nothing will change. In some states, the open enrollment period for the ACA (the window for people to sign up for a health care plan) is still going on. The federal government insists that, at least until further legal action is taken, peoples’ health care benefits won’t be affected by the Texas ruling. And it’s important to remember that it could take months or even years for the legal battle to play out.

Who Will Be Impacted?

The Affordable Care Act is a huge and complicated document. But if it is dialed back, or ruled unconstitutional in its present form by the Supreme Court, probably the most impacted group will be the ten million people who depend on the ACA’s expanded Medicaid program in order to get insurance. Other groups currently protected under the ACA include those with pre-existing conditions, and young people, who are allowed to remain on their parents’ insurance until age 26.

Dig Deeper What does the term “guaranteed issue” mean? If the Supreme Court finds the ACA unconstitutional, how will this change?