“Off-Year” Elections? Not for Democrats

They’re called “off-year” elections, but there was nothing “off” about last Tuesday night for Democrats around the nation. Several states saw important wins for Democrat candidates. But will 2019’s state-level Democratic gains translate to presidential victory in 2020? Here, Election Central takes a closer look at the results from Election Day, and what (if anything) we can learn from them.

Virginia

Virginia has long been considered a swing state, but Democratic victories last Tuesday night turned control of the state blue for the first time in nearly a quarter-century. In fact, Democrats have now claimed the governorship and both houses of the General Assembly. Even more surprisingly, this happened in the wake of some startling scandals along the campaign trail: top Democrats in the state were accused of wearing blackface and of sexual harassment. Both Vice President Mike Pence and former Vice President Joe Biden campaigned in Virginia on behalf of their respective candidates the weekend before the election, showing how valuable the state is for both parties.

So why the shift? Newly-drawn district lines helped Democrats to flip several seats. And now that they have, there could be important implications. For example, Virginia is the final state needed to ratify the ERA (Equal Rights Amendment). And now that Democrats have control of the state legislature, they will be responsible for drawing district lines in the future, meaning that it will be easier for Democratic Congressional candidates to be elected as well.

Kentucky

The night before the election, Trump flew to Kentucky to campaign on behalf of Matt Bevin, the incumbent Republican governor. Despite that final push, however, Bevin lost to Democratic State Attorney General Andy Beshear by a razor-thin margin. Democrats were particularly excited about this victory, calling it evidence that Trump’s endorsement no longer carries the weight it once did with voters (Kentucky went to Trump by 30 points in 2016).

But other political experts point out that it may be too soon to make assumptions about Trump’s pull in the state: Kentucky has a long history of electing Democrats at the state level even as it leans toward Republican presidential candidates. For example, Kentucky has only elected three Republican governors since World War II. And last Tuesday, all other seats went to Republicans, indicating that Bevin’s loss might be more because of Bevin himself than because Kentucky is turning blue.

Louisiana

Eddie Rispone, the Republican candidate for governor in Louisiana, had virtually no political experience when he entered the race a few months ago. But he ran on a tightly pro-Trump platform (several of his political ads were of Trump speaking at a rally, with no footage of Rispone himself at all). Meanwhile, the Democratic incumbent, John Bel Edwards, has tried to avoid talk of national politics altogether, and instead has focused on state-specific issues. Many political experts are watching the Louisiana runoff race, which will take place next week, as a true glimpse at whether or not the strength of Trump’s political influence still holds.

Dig Deeper What were the election results in your town, city, or state? Do you think those results say anything about whether your home is leaning Republican or Democrat? Explain.