What Happened to Joe Biden?

For the past year, a full slate of potential Democratic candidates have battled on-stage and off, vying to become the person to take on the Republican candidate (almost surely–but not yet officially–Donald Trump) in the 2020 presidential election in November. From the time he entered the race in April 2019, former Vice President Joe Biden became the immediate frontrunner. As the recent VP to one of the most beloved Democratic presidents in modern times–Barack Obama, many political experts assumed that Biden would sweep the nomination. And the polls at first seemed to support that conclusion. Now, however, ten months later, Biden is struggling to even stay in the race. So, what happened? Here, Election Central takes a closer look.

A Familiar Face

Much of the talk during this primary season has been about which Democratic candidate is most “electable”–meaning which one has the best chance of beating Donald Trump in November. While many of the newer more progressive candidates caught the attention and imagination of many Democrats, others doubled down in their belief that what was needed was someone tried and true like Joe Biden. Many felt that he was the only one with the experience, name recognition, personality, and policies to be able to triumph over Trump in the general election.

However, Biden’s performances in several debates were disappointing. Early on, Senator Kamala Harris attacked Biden’s history on racial issues, and he had several poor showings in later debates as well. Even so, most national polls continued to show him as the probable front runner.

A Primary Surprise

Two weeks ago, at the Iowa caucuses, the unexpected happened. Not only did Biden not come out on top, as many had predicted he would: he finished fourth, behind Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Senator Bernie Sanders, and Senator Elizabeth Warren. A week later, he finished fifth in New Hampshire, as Senator Amy Klobuchar edged ahead of both Biden and Warren.

The Campaign Goes South

While the next schedule Democratic primary is on February 22 in Nevada, Biden’s big focus is on the South Carolina primary (February 29). This one is significant because it is the first state primary located in the South, and the first one where voters of color will play a significant role (African Americans constitute about two-thirds of Democrats in South Carolina). Biden has long been projected to be the winner there, due in part to his association with the popular Barack Obama, and the relationships he has built with black and Latino communities during his time in office.

Polling numbers show him leading by several points, with billionaire Tom Steyer and Sanders trailing behind. However, polls also show that Biden’s popularity with black voters has slipped a bit in recent weeks. For their part, Steyer and Sanders are also focusing heavily on South Carolina, with ads and extensive ground campaigns.

So, what’s the bottom line? If, in South Carolina, Biden once again performs more poorly than expected–it could mean the end to his presidential bid.

What Do You Think? Joe Biden’s campaign slogan is, “Our best days still lie ahead.” What do you think Biden means by this? Do you agree with him? Why or why not?