In 2020, Georgia narrowly voted for President Joe Biden. At the same time, the state elected two Democratic senators. Georgia Democrats are hoping to keep the momentum going for the upcoming 2022 midterm elections. But will they be successful? Here, Election Central looks at recent political trends in the state.
Before 2020, Georgia had not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2000. Much of the Democratic Party’s success two years ago was driven by strong African American turnout. 2018 candidate for governor, Stacey Abrams collaborated with the New Georgia Project to urge millions of Georgians to get out and vote. Another group, Battleground Georgia, focused on African American votes specifically. Its efforts increased African American voter turnout in the state by four percent over the previous election. Also, suburban voters–particularly nonwhite voters helped Democratic voters outnumber the historically conservative Georgia suburbs. This trend was seen in suburbs around the country in 2020.
In 2022, Stacey Abrams is again running for the governor’s seat against incumbent Republican Brian Kemp. If Abrams wins, she will be the first African American and first female governor in Georgia’s history. In another important race, incumbent Democrat, Senator Raphael Warnock is challenged by Republican Herschel Walker, a former football star.
The 2022 political outcome in Georgia might come down to the suburbs. But the outcome in 2022 is still too unpredictable. On the one hand, Georgia suburbs continue to see an increase of new minority residents. This demographic of the population has a history of voting for the Democratic Party. However, the strong backlash against Donald Trump that helped Democrats win in 2020 is not a factor this year. Georgia’s shift to the Democrats in 2020 may end up being a moment in history, rather than a permanent trend.
Currently, Democrats hold the Senate by just one vote. That means that every Senate outcome can have a significant impact on which political party controls the Senate. Republican organizers believe Georgia is one of the strongest chances to win another member.