Trump Leads with Republican Voters of Color

The upcoming 2024 presidential election is already making headlines. So far, three candidates have officially declared their plans to run in the Republican presidential primary: former president Donald Trump, former South Carolina governor and U.S. ambassador Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy, a tech entrepreneur. While Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has not yet officially declared his candidacy, he has indicated privately that he plans to run. Currently, DeSantis is widely considered to be Trump’s most significant competition for the Republican presidential nominee. But Trump continues to poll higher in national primary polls than DeSantis, with help from an unlikely group: Republican voters of color. Here, Election Central explores this further. 

Where Things Stand 

In early national polls, Trump has polled well above DeSantis—his closest competitor—since the former president announced his plans to run. In March 2023, Trump is averaging about forty-four percent in national primary polls, which puts him fifteen points higher than DeSantis, who is averaging about twenty-nine percent. Haley, meanwhile, is polling at around ten percent in the same polls. 

Although it’s still very early in the race, Trump’s lead over DeSantis is important for two reasons. Historically, candidates polling as high as Trump at this point in the race go on to win their party’s nomination about seventy-five percent of the time. Also, Trump’s lead is growing. This is at least in part because DeSantis has not officially declared his candidacy, while Trump is actively out on the campaign trail. But there is another reason for Trump’s significant early lead: Republican voters of color.  

An Unlikely Boost 

Among Republican voters of color, Trump is leading DeSantis by almost thirty percentage points; fifty-five percent of Republican voters of color would choose Trump, compared to twenty-six percent who would choose DeSantis. By contrast, among white Republicans, the two candidates are nearly tied (thirty-eight percent for Trump, thirty-seven percent for DeSantis).  

So, why does Trump enjoy such a large lead among Republican voters of color? Much of it has to do with economics. Trump leads among Republican and Republican leaning voters who have a combined household income of less than $50,000 per year. (DeSantis, on the other hand, has a thirteen-point lead among Republican voters with a household income of more than $50,000 per year.) Statistically, Republican voters of color are much more likely to have household incomes below this threshold, while white Republicans are more likely to earn above this threshold. (Forty-five percent of Republican voters of color bring in less than $50,000 per year, compared to just twenty-eight percent of white Republicans.) 

Why It Matters 

This difference matters even more than it once did, because the number of Republican voters of color is growing. In 2023, they make up about eighteen percent of Republican voters, compared to thirteen percent in 2016. Still, most American voters of color are Democrats or vote for Democratic candidates. However, Trump also received more votes from people of color in the 2020 election than he won in the 2016 election. If this trend continues, it’s possible that Republican voters of color could be a deciding factor in the 2024 Republican primaries.

Dig Deeper Given what you’ve read in this story and heard and seen in the news, which candidate do you think stands the best chance of winning the Republican nomination? Why?