A Preview of the 2024 Senate Election

09 August, 2023

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All states are equally represented in the Senate. Each state has two senators who serve six-year terms. One-third of the Senate is up for reelection in any given election year. In 2024, 33 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election. Here, Election Central takes a closer look at some of the races that could affect who controls the Senate in 2025.

Why is control of the Senate important?

One of the responsibilities of the Senate is to approve or deny the president’s nominees for Supreme Court justices and federal judges. If a person is confirmed, then they will serve as a judge for life. The confirmation of these judges will extend the president’s influence over the government and legislation long after that president has left office. If the same political party holds the Senate and the presidency, the Senate will likely approve most presidential appointments. If different parties control the presidency and the Senate, then the president’s nominees are less likely to be confirmed.

Who currently controls the Senate?

The division of the two major political parties in the Senate is very close. Democrats have 48 seats, Republicans hold 49 seats, and independents, who frequently vote with Democrats, hold three seats. Vice President Kamala Harris, who would cast a vote in a tie, is also a Democrat. Because of the liberal independents in Senate and the role of the Vice President, Democrats effectively hold a majority in the Senate. Democrats hold 20 of the 33 seats up for election in 2024, Republicans hold 10, and independents hold three. Any Senate election that results in a change of party control could affect future political goals.

Races to watch

Senate races are closely followed during presidential election years as the outcomes will affect the new president’s influence. Political analysts are intently watching 10 Senate races that they think could flip in the 2024 election. Democrats hold seven of these seats, Republicans hold two, and an independent holds one.

Republicans would like to flip Montana’s Senate seat. Democrat Jon Tester currently holds the seat. He will face the winner of the June 2024 Republican primary. Presently, there are two Republican candidates. The first is Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL who has the endorsement of Montana’s governor and many senators around the country. Sheehy is challenged by Matt Rosendale, the current U.S. representative for Montana’s 2nd congressional district. 

The race for Ohio’s senate seat, held by Democrat Sherrod Brown, will also be closely watched for a potential flip. Brown will face the winner of the Republican primary. Republican candidates include: Frank LaRose, the Ohio Secretary of State; Bernie Moreno, a businessman endorsed by former President Trump; and Matt Dolan, a current state senator. 

The race for West Virginia’s senate seat held by Democrat Joe Manchin is also one to watch closely. Manchin narrowly won the 2018 election and has yet to declare his candidacy. If he runs, he will face the winner of the Republican primary that includes West Virginia Governor Jim Justice and Alex Mooney, the current U.S. representative for West Virginia’s 2nd congressional district. 

Republicans also hope to flip Democrat-held seats in Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Only Nevada and Michigan have Republicans actively campaigning. While no Republican has declared their candidacy in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, several people are considering a run.

In Texas, Democrats would like to flip the seat held by Republican Ted Cruz. Cruz will face the winner of the Democratic primary that currently includes Colin Allred, the U.S. representative from Texas’s 32nd district, and Texas State Senator Roland Gutierrez.

The race for the Florida senate seat held by Republican Rick Scott is also one to watch. No Democrat has announced their candidacy, but the right candidate could capitalize on the presidential race with straight-ticket voters to potentially flip the seat.

Independent Kyrsten Sinema holds the Arizona senate seat. She will face a Democratic and Republican challenger, giving both parties an opportunity to flip the seat. Some political analysts believe that Sinema will split the vote with her Democratic challenger, giving the Republican candidate an advantage. 